ISRAEL and OBAMA PLAYING CHICKEN?

The discussion is heating up over Iran, with unveiled threats from Israel to strike. At the same time, Obama begs Israel to delay. These are the dots, but how do we connect them? That is, what do we pull out of the morass of information swirling around us that helps us understand this heated public negotiation?

Well, one line to use is the need of Israel. Israel, however, can certainly strike Iran, whether from above or within. So why is Israel now openly saying it will strike?

The answer is found in the psychology of negotiations, easily seen every season in pro sports. When a star player’s contract is coming due, he wants to get the highest salary in his next contract. So, instead of saying he wants to play for the big market team, he says he loves his current team and wants to stay there for the rest of his career. He does so, because that bids up his salary from other teams (and his). They now have to bid higher to get him to leave his current team, where his alleged ties are, a city he so dearly loves. 

So, what’s the salary Israel wants from Obama? And why would Obama need to offer it? Well, Israel needs bunker busting bombs. Without them, it will lose its sons and daughters in any post Iran-bombing ground war with Hamas and Hezbollah  just like a few years ago.

What does Obama want? He wants peace at election time. He wants stability, as he approaches the elections. He can get it, if he and Israel strike a deal. What’s the deal? Connect the dots, and you’ll see that he’ll find a way to justify giving Israel bunker busting bombs and some of whatever else Israel wants to “stay with its current team”, i.e. to continue to refrain from striking Iran.

Now, Obama is certainly no dope. So in this  case, it becomes a game of chicken. If Obama delays sending Israel what it wants, Israel will likely turn up the pressure, for example by killing more Iranian scientists and saying that is not enough. Gee, Mr. President, we are really up against the ropes. We’ll have to bomb Iran. It could cost you the election, though.

Who will blink first. Will Obama blink and send the bunker bombs to ensure peace by election time? Will Israel back off from bombing threats, so as not to anger the president of its sole benefactor? Let’s  see who blinks first.

In politics, just as in sports and so much else of life, it is always necessary to read between the lines and listen with the third ear, just as psychiatrists do, to understand what’s really going on under the surface.

P.S. Hamas is trying to weaken Israel’s perceived need for the bunker bombs by stating publicly it will not bomb Israel. Does it think Israel will no longer think it needs bunker busting bombs from Obama? No, but Hamas might think American support for Israel will quiet, if it “promises” it will not bomb. Once again, it is both ends against the middle for Israel. Let’s see who blinks.