Barack Obama’s recent endorsement of gay marriage is his latest political move. The question is why and why now.
Clearly, the issue has been on the table for a while, i.e. a matter of discussion. Could Joe Biden’s “slip” on Meet the Press merely have brought the issue to the fore, with Obama unable to hedge on it anymore? On the other hand, was the “slip” not a slip at all, but a trial balloon? Whatever the case, Biden’s remarks seem to have emboldened the gay/lesbian activists to pressure Obama to come out of his political closet on the issue.
Whatever the case, the move is risky for Obama. After all, many states have banned gay marriage. In those where it has passed, the numbers in favor were not overwhelming. Thus, Obama risks losing the middle on this issue, while he may have energized the gay constituency in his favor.
Another question is, “Why now?” Well, if Biden’s statements were truly slips, then Obama’s hand was forced. On the other hand, Obama likely has lots of polls showing which states will react which way depending on his stand. If that is the case, and the polls indicated he’d not lose much by declaring, doing so was not so risky. That is, he measured the risk before taking the step.
But why could he not have waited longer, until the height of the election season, when gay/lesbian energy would be important and when he could measure the likely reaction more accurately? If the polls changed, he could just defer his declaration.
The answers are not clear. Obama is certainly a risk taker, albeit a calculated, disciplined one. For example, he took a big risk in the Bin Laden murder and won.
On the other hand, it just could be that Obama saw private polls that were very worrisome. Perhaps he needed the gay/lesbian support, fearing erosion of general support. If so, declaring now was more an act of desperation.
The answer will unfold, as we approach the conventions and the polls.
The important thing for the educated voter is to realize that either risk or desperation could be at play.
Can you immagine how the political ideas and aspirations envisioned by Abraham Lincoln and the exploration of the psychological mind explored by Sigmund Freud can be seen as one entity?